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Grim outlook for US container trade
2009/3/19
The global recession began to hammer waterborne commerce during the second half of 2008, according to the latest containerized import-export statistics from PIERS Trade Horizons.
The just-released numbers dash any lingering hopes that demand from emergent economies for US exports would provide a silver lining in an otherwise darkening outlook.
PIERS Trade Horizons reports that US imports, which had been declining since the start of 2008, plunged 10.5 percent in the last quarter to end the year down 7.9 percent from 2007.
PIERS Trade Horizons had forecast a drop of 7.6 percent.
US exports, which had continued to grow in the first three quarters of 2008, albeit at a slowing pace – 20.8 percent in first quarter, 13.5 percent in the second and 9 percent in the third – went into sharp reverse, falling 16.9 percent.
While exports finished 2008 up 5.8 percent, the year''s gain compares poorly with the 17.5 percent growth recorded in 2007. PIERS Trade Horizons had forecast 9.7 percent growth.
PIERS Trade Horizons forecasts a 2.8 percent decline in import volumes this year, and a weak recovery to 1.5 percent growth in 2010. Exports, which posted a 5.8 percent gain last year, are forecast to contract 6.6 percent in 2009 and fall a further 1.3 percent in 2010.
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2009/3/19